Posts Tagged ‘Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election’

The Mueller Report: I read it for you, but you should read it for yourself. pt 5

June 26, 2019

The President’s Efforts to Curtail the Special Counsel Investigation

We may never know why Mr. Trump ordered Mueller to be fired, then changed his mind. Did he give the order in a fit of temper and either reconsider or lose interest once he’d calmed down a bit? Was he eventually persuaded that his concerns about conflicts of interest were so flimsy they would only embarrass him if he kept pushing them? Does he in fact have so little attention span that he simply forgot, as some books have suggested? Or did he decide that derailing Mueller’s investigation would work better than sacking him? Perhaps an impeachment inquiry or criminal prosecution after he leaves office will reveal more, if Mr. Trump is compelled to testify under oath. What we do know, however, is that the efforts to shut down the investigation were not limited to trying to get rid of the chief investigator.

Two days after McGahn refused to order Rosenstein to fire Mueller, Mr. Trump ordered Corey Lewandowski to take a message to Jeff Sessions ordering him to unrecuse himself and take charge of the investigation. The idea was not to simply shut it down, but rather to forbid the FBI from actually investigating any crimes; instead they were to only look at what the Russians had done and how to prevent them from doing it again, without considering whether Trump or anyone else had committed any crimes. This was unusual since Lewandowski had no government position and hence had no real reason to be carrying instructions or memos between the White House and the Department of Justice, aside from the fact that he was known for being utterly loyal to Mr. Trump and hence perhaps more likely to do as he was told. Trump dictated a letter to Sessions stating that Sessions was to announce that since the President was being treated very unfairly, he had decided to unrecuse himself; furthermore, unless Sessions made this statement as dictated and restricted the investigation as instructed, he would be fired. Lewandowski decided that, given the sensitive nature of this message, he should hand it to Sessions in person; but after several unsuccessful attempts to arrange a meeting where he could do so, he decided to give the memo to Rick Dearborn, a senior White House official who had a dinner appointment with Sessions. Lewandowski says that while he thought Trump had tasked him with delivering this message because of his loyalty, Dearborn would be able to do it better because he actually did work for the government and had a long relationship with Sessions. However, when Dearborn saw the message he was to deliver, he became extremely uncomfortable and did not deliver it; although he said he had “handled the situation” he in fact refused to deliver the message and instead threw it away. At this same time Mr. Trump, not knowing the speech he intended Sessions to deliver had not been passed to him, called an impromptu news conference to talk about how “unfair” it was for Sessions to recuse himself from the Russia probe, and to state that Sessions might not be allowed to continue as Attorney General. Trump followed this up by demanding that Reince Priebus, his Chief of Staff at the time, fire Sessions. Ostensibly this was because Sessions had falsely denied discussing campaign-related matters with the Russian ambassador, but those around him believed the real reason was what Trump had been saying for months: his anger over Sessions’ recusal from the Russia investigation. Priebus resisted, and when Trump insisted Priebus lied and said he’d get Sessions to resign even though he had no such intention. Eventually he was able to convince Trump that if they fired Sessions the second and third ranking people at DOJ, Rosenstein and Rachel Brand, would also resign, and that he would be unable to get anyone confirmed by the Senate to replace them.

The testimony given under oath to Mueller paints a picture of chaos and dread. Hope Hicks said she wanted to “throw herself” between Trump and the press during his July 19 interview lambasting Sessions, but he loved it and loved the coverage it got afterwards. Priebus and McGahn discussed resigning rather than go along with the plan to fire Sessions. Sessions wrote out another letter of resignation and carried it with him whenever he went to the White House after these events. Again, the only thing that prevented a major Constitutional breakdown, with possibly the entire leadership of the Department of Justice resigning , was the refusal of Trump’s underlings to obey orders they thought were “all wrong.” At times they lied and stalled until his temper cooled down, other times they kept trying to talk him out of whatever self-destructive, government-destructive action he was demanding. The whole time he seems to have been loving the press coverage his attacks on Sessions were getting, and his major concern was to time his actions so as to avoid bad coverage during the Sunday news programs.

In considering whether Trump’s efforts to have Lewandowski deliver an ultimatum that he either rein in the Mueller investigation or be fired, the Special Counsel considered the following elements:

  1. Obstructive act: Would these actions naturally obstruct the investigation and any grand jury proceedings that might flow from the inquiry? Undoubtedly; Mueller writes that “Taken together, the President’s directives indicate that Sessions was being instructed to tell the Special Counsel to end the existing investigation into the President and his campaign…” so the entire point of the President’s actions was to obstruct the investigation.
  2. Nexus to an official proceeding: It was public knowledge that there was already a grand jury investigation of the Trump campaign by this time. We don’t know too much about that because this part of the report is redacted.
  3. Intent: Mueller writes: “Substantial evidence indicates that the President’s effort to have Sessions limit the scope of the Special Counsel’s investigation to future election interference was intended to prevent further investigative scrutiny of the President’s and his campaign’s conduct.” Or to put it bluntly: Trump was trying to cover up his own past misdeeds and those of his employees. In particular, Mueller notes that Trump sought to use Lewandowski, someone outside the government who was known to be extremely loyal, to communicate with Sessions, rather than simply talk to him directly or use normal government channels, suggesting that Trump was trying to hide his message to Sessions and to avoid any official record of having communicated with him at all. And it might have worked, if Lewandowski had managed to deliver the message himself instead of passing it to Dearborn to deliver. Dearborn was so freaked out when he read the message he was supposed to pass on that “he recalled not wanting to ask where it came from or think further about doing anything with it,” and instead lied about delivering it and instead trashed it.

Legal experts agree that the fact that Trump failed to obstruct justice because his staff refused to cooperate (or in the case of Lewandoski bungled the job) does not make it any less a crime, just as we routinely throw terrorists in jail for planning bombing attacks on this nation even when they end up talking to an FBI informant instead.

The Mueller Report: I read it for you, but you should read it yourself. pt. 2(a)

May 22, 2019

Redacted Reactions to the Redacted Mueller Report: I read it so you don’t have to, but you really should; pt. 2(a)

 

First, a traditional prosecution or declination decision entails a binary determination to initiate or decline a prosecution but we determined not to make a traditional prosecutorial judgment.”

——Special Counsel Robert S Mueller III, Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election

 

Volume Two of the Mueller Report deals with the question of obstruction of justice. There are three points that I consider most important to understanding this part of the report. The first is that the Special Counsel began with a decision not to recommend prosecution no matter what. This decision is explained as being based on the Office of Legal Counsel’s standing policy that a sitting President cannot be indicted, because it would undermine his effectiveness. A sitting President can be impeached, which is much harder since it takes 2/3 of the Senate to convict and removed an impeached official. A substantial majority of Senators could believe the person guilty and even a danger to the nation, but so long as 34 vote in favor of the impeached official (whether it be a president, judge or whatever) he or she remains in office. A president can be indicted and tried upon leaving office under OLC guidelines, but not until then; so the president must either be first removed via impeachment or 25th Amendment procedures, or indicted after finishing his elected term of office. So while the Attorney General expressed surprise that Mueller made no recommendation to prosecute, the fact is that Mueller felt he had no choice; his only job was to gather and preserve evidence for possible later prosecution.

Furthermore, Mueller expressed the opinion that even creating a sealed indictment, to be automatically served upon the President’s leaving office, would be unjust. The accused must have the right to clear his (or her) name. Usually that is done through a trial, when the defendant is declared “Not Guilty.” If a President can’t be tried, then the President can’t clear his name; the accusation will hang over him (or her, if we ever get that far) like the Sword of Damocles. The only just way to resolve this situation is through impeachment. With an impeachment hearing, the evidence against the impeached official is presented; and more important for the defendant, the accused can present his/her evidence in defense. Thus an impeached President would have the opportunity to clear his name, by offering a defense at the impeachment hearing and trial.

The refusal to recommend indictment is not, therefore, remotely like claiming that there is nothing indictable. Rather, it is a recognition that, given the laws and rules that authorized the investigation in the first place, a sitting President can’t be indicted as any other person would who did the same things. Impeachment, and/or prosecution after leaving office, are the only options.

In fact, the Special Counsel’s report states several things quite clearly: first, that even if no “collusion” was established, that does not mean there was no evidence that it existed or that such evidence might come to light if certain witnesses cease refusing to testify candidly and truthfully; second, that if the investigation had exonerated the President they would say so, but they are not saying so, so you can draw your own conclusions (or have an impeachment trial to examine the evidence); and third, that there is in fact substantial evidence for obstruction of justice charges against the President.

To be continued….

The Mueller Report: I read it for you, but you should read it yourself. pt. 1

May 16, 2019

Redacted Reactions to the Redacted Mueller Report: I read it so you don’t have to, but you really should. Part One

 

“While this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”

——Special Counsel Robert S Mueller III, Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election

 

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/04/18/mueller-report-searchable.pdf

Reading the redacted Mueller report is a lot like watching an R-rated movie on television when you were a kid and your parents didn’t let you see the original version in the theater. You can still get a lot of the experience. You know the crimes are pretty bad, the villains are villainous, and somebody just got screwed; but you’re pretty sure you’re not getting the whole experience, and whether it’s for titillation or for actual context that would make the rest more comprehensible, you want that whole experience. In that analogy, the Barr summary is your parent saying, “You don’t need to see that filthy version. Trust me, he says “Yippee-ki-yay Mr. Falcon” in the original too. Really, it’s all pretty boring, and you should just forget about it. And who wants to see a bunch of monkey-loving snakes on a monkey-loving plane anyway? It’s just silly. Just watch the movies I recommend; they’re better and I’ve checked them out to make sure there’s nothing that will confuse you at your young age. Trust me.” And somehow the oft-repeated “Trust me,” and the implication that you can’t handle the truth unless it’s been baby-birded for you by your parental authority figure just makes you want to see the original for yourself even more. So it is with the redacted Mueller report: what’s there is already pretty disturbing, but you sense there’s more that would either make the rest more understandable or reveal the true importance/horror what you’re being shown. And with Barr having gotten the job of reading it for you by first publishing a 16 page essay on how, without even seeing the evidence, he knows Mr. Trump didn’t do anything wrong because he’s the President and presidents can’t and don’t do anything wrong, his reassurances are as convincing as your parent telling you that “The Human Centipede” is a boring movie about bugs.

The first thing I learned from the Mueller report is that the early characterizations of it were misleading at best. It does not, for example, “totally exonerate” the Trump campaign even on the issue of conspiracy to defraud the U.S.A. It generally uses less committal phrases, like “did not substantiate” or “were unable to reach a conclusion.” In fact, there were numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence and other agencies. The report concluded that little short of an explicit quid pro quo would be likely to win a conviction, and much of the coordination between Russia and the GOP was implicit. That is not to say that there were no crimes; it is only to say that DOJ guidelines led Mueller to only recommend charges if he were sure of a conviction, and that nothing short of a recorded statement between two people saying something like, “Hey, I have a great idea for how we could fix the election and then give you Ukraine in exchange; it’s illegal but let’s do it anyway” would hold up. Trump’s campaign chairman and Russian oligarchs did, for example, discuss dividing Ukraine, but other members of the team were too uninterested to follow up. Kushner and Don Jr. among others did hold a secret meeting with Russian representatives and then lie about it, knowing that the meeting was about Russian efforts to help Mr. Trump win the election; but Mueller concluded that most of the Trump Team were too ignorant to definitely know what they were doing was illegal and too arrogant to ask a lawyer or diplomat whether they should be doing this. To them it was no different than negotiating a real estate deal with Yakuza or Russian Mafia members, which they’ve done for years and saw no reason to stop. Without proof that Jared and Donnie were intelligent enough to know that dealing with a foreign government to get help winning an American election is not only immoral and unpatriotic but also illegal, Mueller didn’t feel he could show criminal intent. But “we couldn’t prove it because Manafort and others blatantly lied,” or “we weren’t sure they knew they were breaking the law even though they lied to hide what they’d done,” or “we determined that it wasn’t worth the trouble to prosecute these crimes because we weren’t sure of getting a conviction” is something less than “total exoneration.”

At the same time, things apparently aren’t quite as bad as I and many others had feared. Yes, the Republican Administration is just as petty, venial, greedy, selfish, deceitful and unpatriotic as we thought; but they’re also disorganized and disloyal and often just plain dumb. They stab each other in the back, or work at cross purposes due to lack of communication and different personal agendas. For example, Erik Prince discussed how he worked to set up a covert back channel between the Trump campaign and Russia, only to have Bannon ignore his reported early success due to disinterest. He either failed to understand how significant this opportunity was, or it didn’t fit into his plans for the coming civil war between liberals and white nationalists; in any case, he wasn’t upset because it was illegal or deceitful or upset at all, but merely bored.

The coordination between Putin and the Trump team was something like a tango; the partners don’t verbally communicate, but respond to each other’s movements to stay in sync. One side would give hints and the other would act on the perceived hints, but rarely were words spoken that could come back in court as evidence. If Trump said he hoped something would happen or his people said they needed something, Russia would provide it without explicitly being asked. But much of this was one-way; Russia was working to provide the Trump campaign with whatever it needed, but when they came back hoping to capitalize on the good will they’d earned they found that no one on the Trump team had a plan of how to help them. They couldn’t even find anyone with the authority to answer their questions except for those, like Bannon, who had their own agendas and were too busy to respond.

Furthermore, by the time Putin’s people came along to try to build bridges to the Trump administration, they found that he was so weakened that he was unable to respond. Mueller repeatedly mentions that some representative of Putin would approach some Trump advisor with plans for Ukraine or Syria or lifting sanctions on some oligarch, only to be told that the Trump team was under too much scrutiny due to its perceived pro-Russian attitude and Putin’s pro-Trump attitude. As Spock says in Star Trek: The Undiscovered Country, “Only Nixon could go to China.” Nixon was well-known as a Red-baiter, hostile to Communists whether they were American, Russian or Chinese. Therefore, when he unexpectedly opened negotiations with the People’s Republic of China, no one seriously thought he was betraying his nation for his own ends. Trump is no Nixon, at least in that sense. He and his family boasted for years about how much business they did with Russia and Russian oligarchs, and everyone knew that the Trump-Kushner Syndicate would make a significant profit if U.S. sanctions were lifted. Trump has borrowed heavily from Russian sources, and pursued deals like the Moscow Trump Tower project which he then lied about to the American people. Thus, he is compromised, an easy target for blackmail or more subtle pressure. And therefore, any time Putin made an effort to reap the rewards of his success (in Moscow they said “Putin won” when Trump won), he was told “we’re too weak now, we can’t be seen as being too friendly to you.”

So those of us who thought of Trump as “Putin’s Puppet” were too worried, according to the Mueller report. The Trump team is too chaotic and incompetent to carry out a decent conspiracy. As one of their surrogates puts it, they can’t even collude with each other, so how could they possibly collude with Russia? Mueller backs up Graham on that assessment. And when they might want to collude, they are too afraid of seeming like Russian stooges to risk doing very much. Mueller describes multiple efforts by Putin to follow up on his success in installing Trump, but concludes that they have foundered not because the Republicans were patriotic or even minimally honest, but simply that they were incapable.

Aside from this, there is little surprising in the first half of the Mueller report: depressing, distressing, but not surprising. Most of it has been reported in the mainstream media, the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, NBC, BBC, public radio and television, even occasionally on FOX News if you avoid the prime-time pundits and the Dawn of the Sycophants and stick to Shepherd Smith and Chris Wallace and the rest of the “News” division. Mueller’s investigation largely supports the reports of what Trump calls “Fake News,” showing time and again that the facts support the actual news media reports and that, when put under oath and confronted with the facts, even Trump’s employees admit this. By contrast, having sorted through a great deal of evidence, including electronic records, sworn statements from multiple witnesses and so on, the Trump/GOP assertions have been show to be false more often than not. Between the flat-out perjury, the public lies that get quietly retracted when under oath, the half-truths that later get corrected again and still turn out to be misleading, and the assertions based on arrogant ignorance, the Mueller report makes clear that you should not believe anything from Team Trump, whether it comes from the Trump Crime Family, the conservative media echo chamber, or the GOP as a whole. So while Mueller has shown that the GOP Congress and White House are failing to protect American sovereignty and democracy, or even actively working against these as far as they are capable, there is still one pillar of American democracy that the report suggests is doing its job fairly well under the circumstances: the free press.